My average blind1¹ As in without seeing the community prediction. Brier score2² A lower Brier score is better, and the range people practically fall in is something like 0.07 (best) to 0.25 (random guessing.) was 0.25 – which is about the worst it could be!

Part of this is probably overconfidence from doing so well the previous tournament, and maybe this tournament was a little harder than the past two? I’m not sure.

I’m not going to share the rest of the results because it was just bad. It doesn’t matter exactly how bad. But! Aside from hubris, there were reasons. I did two things differently this quarter compared to the previous two.

1. I did not look at the community prediction.
2. I did not update very actively.

Basically, I wanted to participate in this tournament in hardcore mode, to see how much of my past result was actual forecasting skill, and how much of it was that I had learned to smooth out the noise of the community forecast. It turns out a large portion of it was about smoothing out the community forecast!

So now I have a new challenge ahead of me: learn forecasting again, this time without the crutches. I have a long way to go.